Covid-19 may be unpredictable, but the breakdown of negotiations over more Covid funding was, unfortunately, entirely predictable. Now the US may be unprepared if — or when — there is a pandemic surge in the fall.
That didn’t sit well with Senator Mitt Romney, a key player in the talks, who said the move “makes our ability to work together and have confidence in what we’re being told very much shaken to the core.”
White House officials may have figured that Republicans would never get on board. Even so, the reallocation made a deal all but impossible. Rallying GOP support was already tough for Romney and Richard Burr, another Republican negotiator, because Republicans have balked at any new spending, particularly on preventative measures such as testing and vaccines.
So where does that leave the country? What’s apparent is that even with more than 100,000 new cases a day, continued disruption and the likelihood of additional surges and variants, the US is moving away from a government-led approach to combating Covid. And that will bring a huge shift once the current supply of tests, treatments and vaccines runs out.
The Kaiser Family Foundation issued a comprehensive report in March detailing the implications of what happens when the federal government loses its purchasing power. One of the conclusions: Those most vulnerable to serious complications from Covid will be the most hurt. It will “exacerbate existing disparities in health and financial security.”
The uninsured will need to pay out of pocket for testing and treatment. There won’t be enough free vaccines. Medicare beneficiaries could face out-of-pocket costs for treatment medications. For those with private insurance, insurers will need to negotiate prices, which could lead to higher costs and premiums.
“People of color are more likely to be uninsured than their White counterparts and face more potential barriers to accessing care,” according to the report. “Any changes that result in more limited access to Covid-19 testing, treatment services, or vaccines, or that require people to pay out of pocket for these services, will likely exacerbate these disparities and may also result in more financial burden.”
Another conclusion: There’s no guarantee these tools will even be available. The federal government has been able to secure initial access to tests, antivirals and vaccines because it prepaid for them. Without that certainty, manufacturers may slow down or stop production altogether when demand declines. Insurers and the US will also be competing for access with global purchasers.
“The last thing that manufacturers of existing vaccines and therapeutics need is a boom-and-bust cycle where the US government commits to supporting manufacturing and then doesn’t commit, and then goes back,” said Rena Conti, a health economist at Boston University and a co-author of an Brookings Institution report arguing for federal investment in vaccines and therapeutics.
“When funding is inconsistent, manufacturers look for other opportunities to repurpose those plants or that highly skilled labor supply,” she told me. Public investment in new therapeutics and vaccines is necessary, she said, “because the private sector will always underinvest.”
Remember when people couldn’t find tests during the omicron surge in December and January? That’s because manufacturing slowed down as demand dropped last year. The US had to make purchasing commitments to secure enough vaccines and 20 million courses of Paxlovid, the antiviral.
There’s not enough time for a smooth transition to the private market before Covid’s next mutation. No one knows what that variant will look like — but vaccines, tests, monoclonal antibody treatments and antiviral medications will be necessary. As will money. Without that investment now, it’s unlikely the US will be prepared for whatever comes this fall.
In other words, expect more economic disruption and more unnecessary suffering — just in time for the midterm elections. Apparently neither party is immune to playing politics with public health.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
• Where Did $6 Trillion in Covid Funding Go?: The Editors
• Voters Aren’t Worried About Covid. Politicians Should Be: Jonathan Bernstein
• Have Public Health Officials Just Given Up on Covid-19?: Faye Flam
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Julianna Goldman is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist who was formerly a Washington-based correspondent for CBS News and White House correspondent for Bloomberg News and Bloomberg Television.
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