Long term, public health officials may be relying more on what’s flushed down your toilet to track COVID-19.
Large-scale community COVID-19 testing sites — like the site at the Budweiser Events Center — have shuttered, and while at-home tests have become more widely available, not all results are reported to the state health department, making the data hard to track.
One data source continues to reliably inform public health officials of current COVID-19 conditions: Wastewater testing.
“Wastewater doesn’t lie,” said Carol Wilusz, who runs the Colorado State University lab conducting COVID-19 research on wastewater samples all along the Front Range, from Wellington to Pueblo. “The number there reflects the actual number that’s circulating.”
Wilusz’s lab has been operating since May 2020, initially monitoring wastewater in the area for COVID-19. The county would use that data to track potential outbreaks and target messaging about testing to areas with increased amounts of COVID-19, county health department spokesperson Kori Wilford said.
The county has begun to rely more on the data from wastewater testing to track current COVID-19 conditions amid the shortcomings of other data points, like individual testing and hospitalizations, Larimer County epidemiologist Jared Olson said.
Rapid at-home tests have become the most accessible way to test for COVID-19 since large-scale PCR testing sites have scaled back, and public health officials know not every at-home test result is being reported to the state (which can be done here: covidrapidtests.colorado.gov).
“We know we’re undercounting the positives that are occurring in the community,” Olson said.
Case counts can help identify trends, but Olson said they’re also looking more at test positivity rates and wastewater testing to get a more accurate picture of how prevalent COVID-19 is in the community.
“We know all of these are imperfect, but we try and take the consensus that we can see from all of them,” Olson said. “… We take all three together to give us the most robust picture.”
More:Here’s where Larimer County stands with COVID case rates and vaccine rates
Olson said they also continue to watch hospitalizations, but that data shows up at the end of a wave or outbreak, not at the beginning. Hospitalizations are not as accurate of an indicator of the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community because there is broader immunity from vaccines and from being exposed, in addition to wider availability of treatments, all leading to fewer hospitalizations.
Wastewater is a good early warning sign that a potential outbreak is coming or a new variant may be circulating, Olson said.
“With the relative decline in hospitalizations and with less information coming from case data, it has become a more important piece of the overall picture, and hopefully something that will be available for long-term monitoring,” Olson said.
State wastewater testing data is shared publicly online at covid19.colorado.gov/covid-19-monitoring-in-wastewater. Data updated Sept. 16 shows south and central Fort Collins is seeing a plateau, west Fort Collins is seeing an increase and north and east Fort Collins experiencing a decrease.
Loveland, Windsor and Berthoud are also seeing decreases, according to the wastewater data.
“(Wastewater) is a more accurate indicator of the COVID that’s circulating,” Wilusz said.
Wilusz’s lab has transitioned from wastewater monitoring to research, she said. She’s had people from all over reach out to her to ask about how they do this testing and what they do with the data.
Wilusz said she can see a long-term use for their lab and wastewater testing in general — not just for COVID-19. The same kind of testing, research and monitoring could be used by public health agencies to track other diseases, like monkeypox, Wilusz said.
Undergraduate and graduate students are also getting hands-on experience working in the lab, and those who have graduated after working in the lab have gone on to work for biotech companies and the Centers for Disease Control.
“It has the potential to be really valuable,” Wilusz said.
