As the holidays approach and more people gather indoors, respiratory viruses are expected to circulate at higher levels this season than over the last two years in Oregon, according to the Oregon Health Authority.
The COVID-19 pandemic already has strained the healthcare system, but RSV and influenza — two of those respiratory viruses — will only cause further strain, said Tom Jeanne, the deputy health officer and deputy epidemiologist at OHA.
“We do expect all three of these pathogens — COVID-19, influenza and RSV — to circulate during this respiratory season at higher levels than we’ve experienced over the last two years,” Jeanne said during OHA’s monthly COVID-19 update. “We don’t know yet if this RSV or influenza season will be more severe in Oregon than pre-pandemic seasons, but nationally, we are seeing some alarming trends of early — and in some cases, very high — circulation of both of those viruses.”
What parents should know:RSV in infants and kids is threatening to overwhelm hospitals
According to Jeanne, COVID-19 transmission is expected to rise as people gather indoors and immunity from vaccinations and previous infections wear off. The seven-day moving average of confirmed and presumptive cases has hovered between 350 to 400 cases, Jeanne said, and an Oregon Health & Science University forecast predicts COVID-19 hospitalizations will slightly increase and peak at around 280 by early December from its current number of 229.
As of Nov. 7, Jeanne said that about 580,000 people, or 12.8% of those eligible, have received one of the available boosters.
The proportion of new Omicron subvariants with mutations of concern is slowly increasing in Oregon, but the new subvariants account for less than 10% of variants circulating in Oregon. The BA.5 variant still accounts for around 80%.
Jeanne said this winter’s COVID-19 wave is not expected to be as severe as last year’s Omicron wave. Fewer peak hospitalizations are anticipated due to high levels of population immunity.
Other respiratory viruses — such as RSV and influenza — are of concern.
RSV is the most common cause of severe lower respiratory infection among infants and young children. Over the coming weeks, Jeanne said there will be increasing activity with RSV — as seen in other parts of the country. Pediatric hospital capacity is currently limited in Oregon, and the virus caused pediatric hospitalizations to more than triple between Oct. 29 and Nov. 5, according to OHA.
Influenza activity remains relatively low in Oregon but slowly increasing. Last week, statewide test positivity was 2%, Jeanne said. Typically, 5% positivity is the threshold for significant influenza circulation, and Jeanne said Oregon is expected to surpass that level within two weeks.
“Given this concerning picture,” Jeanne said, “we need to work together to protect hospital capacity so all of us have access to critical care when we need it.”
In order to combat COVID-19, RSV and the flu, Jeanne said flu shots are recommended, along with making sure they COVID-19 vaccinations are up to date. Getting a booster and flu shot as soon as possible offers greater protection for Thanksgiving and other gatherings, he said.
An RSV vaccine is not available yet, but Jeanne said people can protect themselves through respiratory hygiene. Cover sneezes and coughs, clean high touch surfaces, practice good hand hygiene and wear a mask indoors, he said.
“Masking, particularly in indoor settings, is a powerful tool for reducing the spread of all respiratory viruses,” said Jeanne. “When respiratory virus activity is high, everyone should consider masking indoors when they are with people from outside their household, and nd those at increased risk of severe illness should consider masking indoors even when virus activity is lower.”
