Southwest Florida is now facing a high level of community transmission of COVID-19 and residents are advised to wear masks indoors and on public transportation.
Both Lee and Collier counties have been elevated to the top risk category of high for COVID-19 transmission by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which the federal agency updates weekly on Thursdays. The other risk categories for community transmission are low and medium.
Lee Health, the public hospital system in Lee, was treating 93 hospitalized patients with the virus Tuesday, the most it has since February, according to Dr. Stephanie Stovall, chief clinical officer of quality & safety and hospital-based care.
The NCH Healthcare System in Collier had 29 hospitalized COVID-19 patients on Tuesday, where the volume has stayed in the 20s in recent weeks.
Lee Health has 80 patients with COVID-19 in hospitals. Is a new surge on the horizon?
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At the end of last week, Florida was second highest in newly reported cases per capita behind Hawaii, according to Jason Salemi, associate professor of epidemiology at the College of Public Health/ College of Medicine at the University of South Florida in Tampa.
“(Based) on the CDC’s most recent update of their risk levels, Florida had 86% of its population living in a ‘high’ level area,” Salemi said in an email. “That is the highest percentage in the nation. Nationally, 22% of the population lives in a county classified in the ‘high’ level.”
Except for the northern part of Florida, the bulk of the state is now at high risk of transmission from Marion County, home to Ocala, south into all populous counties.
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The exceptions are Manatee, and the rural counties of Hardee, Glades and Hendry which are still at median risk of transmission.
States don’t report to the CDC every day and it is especially sporadic during weekends and on Mondays, Salemi said.
“Moreover, we know in every state, the official case counts are a significant underestimate of the true number of infections circulating in communities,” he said.
Florida’s positivity rate is 20% at a low end and could be as high as 25%, according to the CDC. The seven-day case count was 74,288 cases.
Omicron variants, which are less deadly than last year’s Delta variant, are behind the latest wave of coronavirus infections. The BA.2.12.1 is responsible for up to 66% of infections nationwide, the CDC estimates.
The rising BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants together account for an estimated 9% to about 18% of cases.
The numbers in Southwest Florida
Data from the CDC shows Lee county has added 262 new cases in the past seven days, which is a 4.35% increase for the week ending June 12. The positivity rate among people getting tested is 21% in Lee.
Overall the CDC reports that Lee has 2,107 cases of COVID-19. That is still far below the volume the first week of January of 10,613 cases, following the busy holiday season.
Stovall at Lee Health said the CDC reports that the community’s new cases has increased 23% in the past 14 days. There have been under 10 deaths in Lee in the last seven-day period.
“I encourage everyone to be aware of the threat and take appropriate actions to help keep high-risk individuals, like the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions, safe, Stovall said in a statement. “Please consider wearing a mask in crowded places, and stay home if you have any symptoms of illness.”
“People who are high-risk should avoid crowded spaces and always wear a mask when in public while the risk of transmission is high,” she said. “It is also not too late to get vaccinated or update your vaccination status.”
In Collier, there have been 182 new virus infections in the past seven days and the total case count stands at 702, according to the CDC. The positivity rate in Collier is 17%. Similar to Lee there have been under 10 deaths in the latest reporting period.
In contrast, Collier had 4,871 cases the first week of January.
Collier was elevated from medium to high risk June 9, according to Kristine Hollingsworth, spokeswoman for the state Department of Health in Collier.
“We are seeing an increase in cases,” she said in an email.
The most recent data from the state health department shows the positivity rate is 15%, Hollingsworth said.
The positivity rate involves reported cases of infection and does not necessarily include people who test positive through a home kit and do not report their results to their county health department, she said.
There is no mandate to report a positive home test to the health department, she said.
The community needs to continue with prevention efforts that includes hand washing, staying home if you are sick and getting tested, but Hollingsworth did not mention the CDC’s recommendation of wearing masks in public.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis shunned mask mandates in 2020 as the pandemic and the deadly Delta variant gripped the state and hospitals were overflowing and were forced to expand intensive care units and convert space to add more beds.
NCH officials did not express alarm about its case count or of the CDC moving Collier into the high-risk category.
“While the CDC is reporting high levels of COVID in our community, as of yet, NCH has not seen that corelate to a rise in COVID hospitalizations,” Jennifer Smith, director of emergency management and safety for NCH, said in a statement.
What can we expect this summer?
Going into the height of Florida’s summer when more people stay indoors for air conditioning and have closer contacts, coupled with waning immunity from vaccines and a general relaxation of preventive measures “are factors that are not helping our situation,” Salemi, the USF epidemiologist, said.
On the other hand, states in the northeast bore the brunt of the most recent wave and recently there has been a decrease in cases and hospitalizations in those states that had been at high level of transmission, he said.
“Masking fatigue, or pandemic fatigue in general, coupled with conflicting messages about the appropriate steps to take to curb community transmission, are undoubtedly playing a role in our collective ability to address the current wave,” he said.
He does not believe Florida residents have developed vaccine fatigue as they have with masking.
“For people who made the wise decision to get vaccinated, I think many are heeding the recommendations for boosting at appropriate intervals,” he said. “But, I do believe we have to keep getting the message out and stressing the importance of heeding those recommendations since the degree of protection conferred by the vaccines wanes over time.”
