Fuelled by the Delta variant, daily virus case counts among unvaccinated in New York City have climbed in recent days, even as the city seems determined to turn the page on the pandemic. Just a few weeks ago, there were only 200 new cases a day across the city on average, the lowest level since the early days of Covid-19. But in the past week, the city had a stretch of several days of 400 or more cases. And the test positivity rate has doubled: from below 0.6% on average to about 1.3%.
Those numbers are still low, but the increase has been swift, surprising some epidemiologists who had not expected to see cases jump so quickly after remaining level through June. With some 64% of adults in the city fully vaccinated, epidemiologists say it remains unlikely that the Delta variant will create conditions as devastating as the past two virus waves. Still, Denis Nash, an epidemiologist, calls the uptick “concerning.”
The Delta variant was detected in a few cases in New York City in February during the second wave. By the end of May, it accounted for about 8% of the cases sequenced by the city, and by mid-June, over 40%. “The metrics to keep a close eye on are hospitalisations and deaths,” said a professor of epidemiology. The seven-day average number of daily hospitalisations this week has stayed under 20. The city has recently seen four or five Covid deaths a day on average. Other US cities areas have seen similar surges in infections. On Tuesday, Los Angeles recorded its fifth day in a row with over 1,000 new cases, with officials attributing the rise to Delta variant’s spread among the unvaccinated. NYT
