As RSV and flu fill emergency rooms across Ventura County, COVID-19 is showing signs of rising and forming a viral triple threat that spawns concerns about hospital capacity for the third winter in a row.
Public health officials said more than 70% of the estimated 30 pediatric beds countywide were full as of a report Thursday along with more than 80% of the pediatric intensive care beds in a crunch driven mostly by the early and elevated arrival of respiratory syncytial virus. The condition causes only cold-like symptoms in the vast majority of patients but can bring severe illness to infants and seniors.
County and hospital officials said available beds remain in their children’s wards with some ability to expand if capacity is reached. Worries linger, driven by the uncertainty of whether the RSV spike will continue.
“We don’t know where this is going. The state has told us they have very little help to offer us,” said Dr. Robert Levin, the county’s health officer, referring to additional hospital staff and personal protective equipment provided during COVID-19 surges.
Like RSV, flu emerged several months early. It has escalated over the last several days, Levin said.
“We are seeing more cases daily,” said Megan Merino, spokeswoman for Los Robles Regional Medical Center in Thousand Oaks. Most of the people coming to the emergency room don’t need to be admitted.
The dominant flu strain so far is a form of influenza A, H3N2, that can cause severe illness for young children, older adults and other higher risk people. The early arrival may be driven by the reduced use of pandemic tools like masking. Some experts also think the resurgence of respiratory illnesses is the result of immune systems that are weaker because of the lack exposure for the past two years to flu or RSV.
There is no vaccine for RSV but Levin pushed people to protect themselves from the flu.
“It’s boring to say this but please go out and get your vaccination,” he said.
Related:Rising children’s virus emerges in Ventura County hospitals without an RSVP
California Department of Public Health data suggests COVID-19 could be rising after a months-long lull. The county’s infection rate rose more than 40% over two weeks though volumes remain relatively low with an average of 6.9 infections a week per 100,000 people, as of a report posted Thursday.
At least 40 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized across the county as of Thursday, more than double the number two weeks earlier. Levin said COVID-19 admissions have been riding a gentle up-and-down rollercoaster for several months. He said it’s too early to know if the disease is spreading faster but asserted transmission will rise soon because of coming family gatherings.
“I suspect a wave of some sort will begin after the Thanksgiving holiday,” he said.
New and highly contagious Omicron subvariants emerging across the country, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, likely make up nearly half of the county’s COVID-19 infections. Levin urged people to update their vaccinations, noting demand for bivalent booster shots that target Omicron remains low. He also recommended people use masks indoors in public places.
The COVID-19 rise is coming but it will likely unfold slowly and not reach the alarming surges experienced the last two winters, said Peter Chin-Hong, infectious disease specialist and professor at UC San Francisco.
“Surge is almost like PTSD or a dirty word,” he said.
It’s the combination of COVID-19, flu and RSV that triggers worries about stretching hospital staffing and bed capacities for the third year in a row. If COVID-19 continues to rise and the other illnesses sustain high levels, challenges could lie ahead, Levin said.
“It’s possible we’ll put significant distress on our hospitals,” he said.
Already, crowded emergency rooms have meant more instances where ambulances are diverted to other hospitals, said Steve Carroll, administrator for Ventura County Emergency Medical Services. The ER backup means ambulances also sometimes wait longer to drop off patients.
“I will say that our hospitals right now are managing the extra volume quite well,” Carroll said. “We’re definitely watching closely. We’re watching what’s happening in other counties.”
Dr. Ken Saul, a Thousand Oaks pediatrician, said RSV has already challenged hospital resources and caused one of his patients to be sent to a Tarzana hospital instead of Los Robles Regional Medical Center in Thousand Oaks. But he also thinks the early arrival of RSV and flu means the illnesses may be hitting peaks now, indicating demand could ease before severe overcrowding happens.
“I’m a little more optimistic because so many people have gotten RSV already and so many people have gotten flu already,” he said. “There is a good chance this may be the major wave.”
Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.
SUPPORT LOCAL JOURNALISM: To see more stories like this, subscribe here.
