A large number of grand final parties at the weekend are partly to blame for Victoria’s huge surge in coronavirus infections, health officials believe.
COVID-19 Commander Jeroen Weimar said “ongoing transmission in households” was behind the spike.
His comments came soon after Premier Daniel Andrews implored Victorians to “do the right thing” and adhere to restrictions following a startling spike in cases.
A further five people have died with coronavirus in the state.
“We’ve seen over the last few weeks ongoing transmission in households, between households,” Mr Weimar said.
“What is different about the numbers today, the activity five or six days ago was quite different.
“The contact tracers tell us that there have been significant numbers of social gatherings on Friday and Saturday, over the long weekend – grand final parties, other social gatherings, barbecues, backyard visits. This has generated significant caseload.”
Mr Weimar said a third of Victoria’s new cases were directly due to social gatherings.
“People have dropped their guard, and decided now it’s the grand final weekend, it’s the long weekend, we deserve a bit of a payback, we deserve a nicer time,” he said.
“And that has now translated into additional 500 cases.
“We can see it not only in the contact tracing interviews but also in our mobility data, traffic data.”
Mr Weimar described today’s cases as a “significant setback” in the roadmap out of lockdowns.
“If this trend is continued, if we see similar case numbers over the coming days, then we’ll go from just below the mean on the Burnet projection.
“We were tracking favourably, we’ll jump to the worst.”
Mr Weimar implored people to think of the state’s healthcare workers slammed under pressure in hospitals when considering breaking restrictions.
“If we are seeing continued spread, it will have grave implications for our nurses, ambulance workers, for our hospitals and for people who need care,” he said.
“This outbreak still remains within our hands. We still have so much left to play for.”
He also urged those who illegally attended an AFL grand final day party or event last weekend to get tested.
“Because you don’t know whether someone there was harbouring the virus, and we now have at least 500 people who we know have had that experience. There will be many hundreds more who went through some kind of social activity.
“We need to make sure if you’re positive, you can protect and isolate yourself and not spread it further.”
Cases ‘go up faster if people don’t follow the rules’
The Premier said the state’s jump in COVID-19 cases is more than a 50 per cent increase from yesterday’s infections.
“They go up faster if people don’t follow the rules,” he said.
“They go up faster if people are out visiting each other in their homes.
“If people continue to visit each other in their homes, they will bring the virus with them, they will spread the virus.”
Mr Andrews said the case numbers were “higher than they needed to be”.
“I ask people with an absolute sense of respect and an acknowledgment it’s hard and it’s been a very long journey. But we can see to the end now. Let’s all of us make the best decisions and not contribute to more virus.
“It’s only a matter of weeks now. And then the lockdown will be off.”
Warning hospitals will get busier
Today’s five deaths include a woman in her 70s and a man in his 80s from Whittlesea, a man in his 70s from Moreland and a man in his 60s and another man in his 90s from Hume.
Mr Andrews said hospitalisations would continue to climb as virus cases surge in the state.
“That’s the price of us opening up, our hospitals are going to get very busy,” he said.
“Let’s not make their work any harder by making poor choices.”
Victoria has officially ticked over its 80 per cent first-dose vaccination milestone, with vaccine figures sitting at 80.3 per cent.
Pfizer gap to narrow in Victoria
Victorians were already eligible to get their second Pfizer dose after three weeks at GPs, but the premier said following “certainty of supply” the state was able to bring forward the interval period at state-run clinics.
The booking system will reflect the change from the evening of October 3 and Victorians will be able to book an earlier appointment from October 4.
Victoria will receive a further 88,000 Moderna vaccine doses at the weekend which will bolster the state’s vaccine rollout.
Mr Andrews said he would not rule out vaccine trucks or buses parking at the end of streets in areas where vaccination rates were low.
“We’ll go door-to-door if we have to,” he said.
The premier said he would do everything possible to avoid reaching more 40,000 active cases like in New South Wales.
“We’ll do everything we can to avoid that.”
“Generally they overestimate and sound more glum than reality, but this time they got it right,” Professor Booy said.
“They said we were heading to 1500. They said the peak might be 2000 or thereabouts.
“It is disturbing. You can’t help but wonder whether the civil disobedience that happened last week is feeding directly into this huge jump.
“Also people having parties as well – not just civil disobedience in the streets. But people in their own homes having large parties when they shouldn’t be.”
Australian Medical Association vice president Chris Moy told Today the large spike in cases was “extremely scary” particularly given Melbourne’s hospital system has come under siege with COVID-19 patients.
“Although they are only one day’s numbers, they are extremely scary, particularly with all the reports about the overall health system which is the critical thing,” Dr Moy said.
“Hopefully, as more vaccinations happen, the numbers will start to plateau, as they have in New South Wales.”
Dr Moy said the protests which took place in Melbourne last week were “extremely worrying” as thousands of people had gathered in close proximity, which had the potential of a super-spreading event.
Police make arrests as Melbourne protests continue for fifth day
“Those protests particularly were extremely worrying in terms of the fact that so many people were close together, and the unrestrained nature of them,” he said.
“We have already seen the cases within the actual union officers.”
The case number spike is not far off New South Wales’ peak of 1603 cases.
There were 34,323 vaccine doses administered yesterday and 65,497 test results received.
Victorians stranded in NSW permitted to return
Victorian residents will then have to quarantine in their homes for 14 days.
It comes as cases surge across Victoria, with one paramedic describing the emergency department conditions as “already apocalyptic”.
Thousands of Victorians are expected to begin returning home from today after being stuck in NSW for months.
Speaking about the expansion of the home quarantine trial last week, Premier Daniel Andrews described Sydney as “an extreme risk zone”.
He said Victorians wanting to come back must adhere to the rules, with technology to keep track of people’s movements.
“That home quarantine is serious, it is not a matter of when you feel like it, it will be a proper 14 days and there will be various mechanisms to check on people,” he said.
Warning of ‘apocalyptic’ hospital conditions
Doctors have called for an after-hours COVID-19 health hotline to help deal with an expected rise in hospitalisations and calls to Triple-Zero.
The hotline would help to field calls from patients and suspected cases, to give people an option other than calling triple-zero.
A paramedic told the publication the healthcare workers had been told to brace for a surge in patients when lockdowns ease.
“They basically told us to prepare psychologically because most of Victoria’s going to think ‘this is great’, meanwhile as a healthcare worker, it’ll feel like a war zone,” he said.
“I just can’t fathom it. Some of the hospitals in Melbourne are already apocalyptic.”
Victoria’s Australian Medical Association president Dr Roderick McRae has described Melbourne’s hospital system buckling under pressure as a “dire” situation.
“It is almost like we are living in parallel universes,” he told Today.
“Everybody at every stage of the Victorian healthcare system is using the word crisis. Other people are looking for a game of tennis.”
Dr McRae said the system had already been under “extreme strain for many, many months” on the back of decades of under-investment.
“So we now have the circumstance that you wait a long time for somebody to answer Triple-Zero, you wait a long time for your ambulance, the person in the ambulance waits a long time to exit the ambulance and get into the Emergency Department.”
Ambulance Victoria Executive Director Clinical Operations and Associate Professor Mick Stephenson said the health system was used to a heavy workload, but it was being slowed down significantly by the virus.
“We’ve got extraordinary demand in the system at the moment,” he said.
“This is the slowest the health system has ever worked because of COVID-19.”
The associate professor said paramedics were dealing with 250 to 300 patients a day who were suspected of having COVID-19, with about 150 turning out to be positive.
