Federal officials this week lowered McLennan County’s COVID-19 community level from medium to low amid falling hospitalizations, signaling that a summer surge is waning after 16 deaths were reported in August.
The county had 13 COVID-19 hospitalizations Wednesday, down from a summer peak of 45 on Aug. 4, the Waco-McLennan County Public Health District reported.
Still, residents should be wary of an early September increase in cases and hospitalizations, echoing trends over the last two years, said Vaidehi Shah, the health district’s senior epidemiologist.
“With schools reopening and people gathering for the Labor Day weekend, the county may see a slight increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations,” Shah said.
Shah recommended getting tested before meeting or spending time with someone immunocompromised or who is at high risk of severe COVID-19.
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Shah said at this stage of the pandemic, the health district recommends that people take precautions tailored to their individual lifestyle and personal risk.
She does not expect another wave comparable to those caused by delta variant last fall and the omicron strains early this year, given the number of people who have been exposed to the virus through vaccines or catching COVID-19.
State numbers show that almost 60% of McLennan County residents have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and almost 20% have received at least one booster.
A new booster that provides protection from the omicron variants is expected to be rolled out as early as next week pending approval by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday.
COVID-19 hospitalization numbers
Shah also said the 16 COVID-19-related deaths reported in August is more than the previous four months combined. It is also the highest monthly figure since February, which had 55 deaths.
Mortality figures are considered a lag indicator of the disease because deaths often follow weeks of illness.
Statewide, Texas Department of State Health Services data shows COVID-19 hospitalizations peaking around 3,695 on July 26 and trending generally downward to 2,674 on Wednesday.
Shah said the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants continue to cause most of the COVID-19 cases in the county and across the state. A variant called BA.2 is beginning to cause more cases in India and Australia, she said. It could reach the United States as well.
Projections and community levels
For the state of Texas, the projection for new infections computed by the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium calls for 17% fewer infections over the next seven days.
In McLennan County and the surrounding counties that make up Trauma Service Area M, the modeling group predicts 23% fewer infections in the next seven days.
Based on COVID-19 data from the prior week, the CDC on Tuesday dropped the county’s COVID-19 community level rating to “low” Tuesday.
Nearby counties including Falls, Limestone, Hill and Freestone also show a low COVID-19 community level. Bosque and Bell counties show medium.
Travis County also shows a low level. Tarrant and Bexar counties remain at high community level, while Dallas and Harris Counties show medium.
For a low COVID-19 community level, the CDC recommends that people stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccines and get tested if they have symptoms.
The guidelines for “low” community level do not mention masking for most people.
For a medium community level, the CDC recommends that people at risk for severe COVID-19 — those older than 65 and people with additional complicating health conditions — consult their health care provider about whether to mask and take other precautions.
For a high community level, the CDC continues to recommend that everyone wear a mask indoors in public places where surrounded by strangers.
The CDC also recently changed its recommendations for quarantine and isolation, Shah said.
Isolation and quarantine
Those who test positive through an at-home antigen test or lab test should stay home and isolate for five days and wear a mask around family members, Shah said.
After five days, if symptoms are improving and fever is gone without medication, the CDC now says people can return to work, but continue to mask for another five days.
Higher education COVID-19 policies
Meanwhile, thousands of college students have returned to Waco in the last two weeks, under COVID-19 protocols less strict than the previous two years.
Baylor University is not requiring weekly COVID-19 testing for the fall semester, spokesperson Lori Fogleman said in an Aug. 24 email.
“However, we continue to stress that everyone monitor their personal health for symptoms, and if they’re sick, stay home and get tested, and if positive, follow the university’s isolation protocols,” Fogleman said.
Baylor’s COVID-19 isolation protocols mirror the CDC’s recommendations.
“Symptomatic and exposed testing continues to be available for students in our health center,” Fogleman said.
Home tests also are widely available, and Baylor encourages faculty, staff and others who are symptomatic to use those as a testing option or get tested through their personal health care provider, Fogleman said.
For Baylor community members sick with the disease, the university also recommends planning in advance for ways to get food and medications while staying in self-isolation.
Like Baylor, McLennan Community College is not requiring a negative COVID-19 test before students attend.
MCC requests that all students, faculty and staff monitor their own health using an online assessment tool available on the college’s website, MCC spokesperson Lisa Elliott said in an email last week.
The college requests self-reporting from anyone experiencing symptoms or testing positive through the college portal. Its protocols for staying home and returning to campus mirror the recommendations of the CDC and Baylor.
Like Baylor and MCC, Texas State Technical College, which started class Monday, has eased COVID-19 precautions.
“Some of our TSTC clinical sites are requiring COVID vaccines, but not on our Waco campus where we don’t have allied health,” Christine Stuart-Carruthers, TSTC’s associate vice chancellor of enrollment management, said in recent email. TSTC calls allied health a set of around 50 programs that will qualify students who complete a degree or certificate for a job in the medical field.
Each institution’s web portal carries detailed guidelines, recommendations and protocols as well as assessment and reporting requirements for its own community.
