Masks suggested in Washtenaw, 7 other Michigan counties this week by CDC

COVID-19 cases are at their lowest point in Michigan since the first week of July.

Likewise, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has fewer Michigan counties at the top COVID risk level than last week. Only eight Michigan counties are at a high COVID-19 Community Level this week, down from 18 counties a week ago.

The CDC uses Community Levels to determine COVID risk, putting counties in one of three buckets: low, medium or high.

The eight counties at a high level (orange) are: Washtenaw, Ionia, Tuscola, Huron, Midland, Oscoda, Dickinson and Iron counties. Last week, most mid-Michigan counties were at a high level.

The CDC recommends masking while indoors in public when counties are at a high Community Level, regardless of vaccination status. However, people with symptoms, a positive test or exposure to someone with COVID-19 should wear a mask regardless of where they live, the CDC says.

Here’s the latest map showing the Community Level for each Michigan county. Tap on or hover over a county to see details.

(Can’t see the map? Click here.)

As the map shows, Michigan has 23 counties at a low level (green, down from 39 last week) and 52 counties at a medium level (yellow, up from 26 counties last week).

Washtenaw County moved into the high category this week, as case numbers and hospitalizations increased. There are more details later in the story, but a likely factor is Washtenaw’s increase in people during the last few weeks as college students returned to the University of Michigan and other area schools for the fall semester.

The CDC considers cases and hospitalizations when determining COVID risk for an area. The goal is to prevent severe disease and limit strain on hospitals.

For Community Levels, the CDC looks at three factors for each county: the percentage of staffed hospital beds occupied by COVID patients, COVID hospital admissions per capita and COVID cases per capita.

A county is at a high level when there are 200 or more new cases per 100,000 in the past week and either (a) 10-plus new COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 or (b) when at least 10% of the staffed inpatient beds are occupied by COVID patients.

If hospitalizations are particularly high, even a county with low cases can be at a high level, per the CDC formula.

(Not every county has a hospital, so each one is assigned a health services area, a geographic region that contains at least one hospital. Counties are attributed the metrics calculated for the entire area, weighted based on each county’s population.)

Here’s a deeper look into the latest COVID trends in Michigan – including cases, hospitalizations, deaths, testing and vaccinations.

Michigan is reporting 1,798 new, confirmed cases per day in the past week

Michigan averaged 1,798 new, confirmed cases of COVID per day in the past week.

That’s the fewest COVID cases reported in a week since early July and down 13.4% from last week.

Michigan also reported 467 “probable” COVID cases per day this week.

Cases are considered “confirmed” when there’s a positive result from an NAAT/RT-PCR test. Cases are considered “probable” when there’s a reported antigen (rapid) test or if somebody has symptoms and was exposed to a person with COVID-19.

All graphics in this story except the initial one (which uses CDC case calculations) are based only on “confirmed” numbers.

The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reports COVID cases once weekly. The department announced 15,854 confirmed and probable cases this week.

Michigan has reported 2.4 million confirmed COVID cases and more than 374,000 probable cases since the pandemic began.

The chart below shows the seven-day average for new, confirmed COVID cases throughout the pandemic.

(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)

Michigan ranks 16th in the U.S. in new cases per capita

Michigan had the 16th-most cases per capita this week of the 50 U.S. states, per the New York Times. It ranked 19th last week.

West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Alabama had the most cases per capita in the country this week. Arizona, Nevada, Vermont, Utah and Wyoming had the lowest case rates.

For COVID hospitalizations per capita, Michigan ranked 15th this week. Michigan also had the 20th-most COVID deaths per capita this week.

19 counties saw rise in cases in last seven days

Only 19 of Michigan’s 83 counties had more reported COVID cases this week than last week.

Three small counties saw 75% increases or larger: Lake, Manistee and Montmorency. Three other small counties saw 75% decreases or larger: Baraga, Alpena and Presque Isle.

Among large counties, most saw a reduction in cases this week. Wayne County dropped 19%, Macomb dipped 17%, Oakland went down 12% and Kent decreased by 9%.

Washtenaw County is an outlier, as cases increased 25% last week – which is in line with students returning to colleges. Last week was the first week of class for the fall semester at the University of Michigan.

COVID rates are determined based on the number of cases and the population in an area – but the population number isn’t temporarily adjusted when college semesters start and end. Which is why college towns likely have comparatively higher rates during the fall, winter and spring and lower rates during the summer.

See the database below to search by county and sort by most/fewest cases. The chart also shows the percent change from week to week and the seven-day case average per capita.

(Can’t see the database? Click here.)

43 Michigan counties at highest risk for cases

There are 43 counties at the highest risk level (Level E) for cases, down from 50 counties last week.

The MDHHS has five risk levels for COVID cases:

Level A: 7-19 cases per day per million
Level B: 20-39 cases per day per million
Level C: 40-69 cases per day per million
Level D: 70-149 cases per day per million
Level E: 150+ cases per day per million

The counties with the highest COVID rates per capita this week are Iron, Lake, Midland, Washtenaw and Huron counties.

Baraga, Alpena, Presque Isle and Alcona have the lowest COVID rates among Michigan’s counties – all of which are in Level A or no level at all.

The map below is shaded by the state’s six risk-assessment levels from A to E. This is based on new cases reported per day per million people from Aug. 31 to Sept. 6.

The arrows on each county show if new cases this week are up or down compared to the previous week. Put your cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Hint: Drag the map with your cursor to see the entire U.P.)

(Can’t see the map? Click here.)

COVID case totals don’t tell the whole story. At-home tests are not reported, so those aren’t included in the data. That’s why it’s also key to look at percent positivity of reported tests and data on hospitalizations and deaths.

Average test positivity is 20%

About 20 of every 100 COVID tests submitted to the state on Monday, Sept. 5, came back positive. The positivity rate has hovered between 18% and 21% in the past week.

The World Health Organization considers there to be a substantial level community transmission when positivity rates are above 5%.

Michigan’s rate peaked at 35% in January. It dipped as low as 2% in early March before climbing again.

The graph below shows the percentage of COVID-19 tests reported that came back positive throughout the pandemic.

(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)

Luce County had the highest COVID positivity rate of all Michigan counties, by far, with 41.2% of tests coming back positive. Shiawassee, Huron, St. Joseph and Hillsdale counties were also above 30% this week.

Alpena and Baraga counties were the only ones below a 5% positivity rate this week.

Check out the positivity percentage for all 83 counties from the past two weeks in the table below.

(Can’t see the database? Click here.)

The interactive map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. You can put your cursor over a county to see details.

(Can’t see the map? Click here.)

Hospitals treating 1,172 confirmed or suspected adult COVID-19 patients

Cases and deaths may be down this week, but hospitalizations jumped 5.2% from last week.

As of Wednesday, Sept. 7, Michigan had 1,172 people hospitalized with COVID – up 58 from last week. Michigan COVID hospitalizations have increased in eight of the past nine weeks.

Of the 1,172 adults with COVID in hospitals Wednesday, 141 were in intensive care and 51 were on a ventilator.

There were also 45 kids hospitalized with COVID in Michigan as of Wednesday.

Michigan is reporting 9 new COVID deaths per day in the past week

Roughly nine people died from COVID each day in Michigan during the past week, the lowest number since early July. Last week, Michigan averaged 14 confirmed COVID deaths per day.

The state had hovered between 10 and 20 COVID deaths per day on average since early July. During omicron’s peak in January, Michigan was averaging more than 100 COVID deaths per day.

Michigan has had 34,818 confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 3,303 probable COVID deaths since the pandemic began. Put another way, roughly one in every 289 Michigan residents have died from confirmed COVID.

Below is a chart illustrating the seven-day average for reported deaths throughout the pandemic.

(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)

Vaccinations: 63.4% of residents have received at least one dose

About 63.4% of Michigan residents have gotten at least one COVID shot, 58.3% have received the full original regimen and 33.8% have been boosted.

The omicron-specific COVID-19 booster shot is now available in Michigan from both Pfizer and Moderna.

The new shots are authorized for use as a single booster dose, administered at least two months after a previous COVID vaccine. Moderna’s shot is authorized for people 18 and older, while Pfizer’s is for those 12 and older.

Below is a vaccination breakdown by age group of Michiganders who have gotten at least one shot (initiated) and those who are “completed,” meaning two shots of mRNA vaccines or one Johnson & Johnson shot, as of Wednesday, Sept. 7:

75 and older: 87.2% initiated; 81.3% completed
65 to 74: 90.5% initiated; 85.4% completed
50 to 64: 76.9% initiated; 72.2% completed
40 to 49: 67.6% initiated; 62.4% completed
30 to 39: 65.9% initiated; 59.5% completed
20 to 29: 55.6% initiated; 49.3% completed
16 to 19: 56.5% initiated; 51.6% completed
12 to 15: 49.7% initiated; 46.1% completed
5 to 11: 30.2% initiated; 27.2% completed
Younger than 5: 5.8% initiated, 1.2% completed

Below is a chart that ranks counties from most vaccinated to least vaccinated.

(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)

For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page.

To find a testing site near you, check out the state’s online test find send an email to COVID19@michigan.gov, or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.

If you have any COVID-19 questions, please submit them to covidquestions@mlive.com to be considered for future MLive reporting.

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