A COVID-19 rise that local public health officials characterized as moderate has pushed Ventura County and 33 other California counties into the highest risk tier in a nationwide assessment by the U.S. Centers For Disease Control and Prevention.
The “high” grade in the CDC’s COVID community-level rating system brings with it a recommendation but not a requirement that all people wear masks indoors. Dr. Robert Levin, county public health officer, questioned the ranking and said the omicron subvariants driving the rise continue to cause less severe illness than previous variants.
He encouraged people to wear masks but said public health has no immediate plans to issue a mandate.
“I don’t see us, frankly, at this moment being close to it,” he said.
The county entered the “high” category a week ago and remained there in an update posted Thursday. CSU Channel Islands officials pointed at the CDC assessment in announcing an indoor masking mandate for the campus outside Camarillo and affiliated sites, including the Channel Islands Boating Center in Oxnard.
“Once we went into the high transmission rates, (CDC) guidelines are very clear,” university President Richard Yao said.
The college’s masking requirement started Tuesday during summer school and will continue indefinitely until the county returns to a lower tier and remains there for an undetermined period of time. About 6,000 students were enrolled during the spring semester but less than 500 remain on campus.
Yao said the only pushback to the mandate came in a few emails from students expressing frustration with one asking for more data on indoor masking.
The CDC weekly ranking places counties in one of three tiers – low, medium or high – based on a formula involving new infections, COVID-19 hospitalizations and the availability of hospital beds.
In Ventura County, transmission has been high for more than a month, driven by the emergence of BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. The strains are more contagious than previous variants and also appear more resistant to immunity from previous exposures and from vaccines.
Levels have plateaued in recent weeks with state data posted Friday showing 34 infections a day per 100,000 people in Ventura County. Actual levels are likely far higher because home testing isn’t included in the calculations.
Levin said the county’s entry into the CDC’s high risk tier appears linked to a recent uptick in COVID-19 hospitalizations. As of Friday, 69 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized across the county, compared to 34 patients a month earlier.
Admissions remain far lower than in previous surges. Of the CDC ranking, Levin noted fewer people need intensive care treatment and some of the patients with COVID are being treated primarily for other conditions.
“The CDC’s methodology is murky,” he said. “I don’t know how the heck they figure this out.”
Levin said he supports businesses and schools that institute their own mask mandates. He won’t discount the possibility the current rise or future waves could reach the level where a county-wide mandate is justified.
“I can’t say they are over,” he said. “We don’t know what the variants have in store for us.”
Omicron subvariants have driven increased COVID transmission across California in what UC San Francisco epidemiologist George Rutherford called a mini-surge. Hospitalizations have risen but have not yet rivaled previous surges that challenged health care resources.
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Vaccinations reduce the chances of severe illness and death. The CDC rankings are designed to push people to get their shots and to wear masks indoors in communities with high transmission, Rutherford said. They are not mandates.
“I think there’s a lot of baggage that comes with those. I think we’re sort of past that,” he said.
More than two years into the pandemic, people have learned to decide what level of COVID-19 risk they’re willing to tolerate, Rutherford said.
“They’ve heard it all,” he said. “It’s really up to people to exercise their own good judgment.”
Donna Pope of Camarillo wore a mask as she left a retail store in Camarillo Wednesday. She started covering up about two weeks ago when people she knew started testing positive for COVID.
“I’ve had it twice, and I don’t want to get it a third time,” she said.
Liz Jeltes, 32, Camarillo is vaccinated and boosted. She rarely wears masks in stores. If the mandate is revived, she’ll follow it. But as long as she’s able to choose, she’ll stay unmasked.
“If I get it, I get it,” she said. “I’m at that point.”
Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.
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