EVANSVILLE, Ind. — COVID-19 and a change in the balance of births and deaths help explain a slight dip in Evansville’s estimated population last year, according to a leading demographer.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest population estimates for cities and towns show that from July 2020 to July 2021, Evansville’s estimated population shrank 0.7%, from 117,258 to 116,486. It comports with the larger trend that the city’s population has steadily decreased since it reached its peak in 1960 at slightly more than 141,500.
But Vanderburgh County’s numbers saw an important change in 2021. For the first time in at least 10 years, the county recorded more deaths than births. The difference — 2,385 deaths to 2,114 births — is reported in an Indiana Business Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. The bureau doesn’t report birth and death data by city.
More on the Census:
“Vanderburgh County wasn’t alone. It was because of the pandemic, three-quarters of the state’s 92 counties had a natural decrease last year,” said Matthew Kinghorn, senior demographer at the center, an arm of Indiana University.
The pandemic? Vanderburgh County recorded 238 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in 2021, according to Indiana State Department of Health data. There’s no official correlation of the county’s COVID deaths to population shifts, but Kinghorn made a connection.
“The natural increase has been declining anyway because we have an aging population, and so when you pile the pandemic on top of that, that really made for a sharp change last year,” he said.
It is hinted at in the previous year’s data, too.
In 2020, the pandemic’s first year, Vanderburgh County recorded 282 COVID-related deaths. The county did record more births than overall deaths that year, but by a significantly smaller margin — 2,069 to 2,032 — than in each of the preceding nine years.
“The pandemic looms large in these numbers,” Kinghorn said.
Tri-State population:
It’s a different story in Warrick County, where deaths began to outnumber births in 2018. The difference has grown year by year — from 17 in 2018 to 177 last year. Warrick County has reported 239 COVID-19 deaths in all through Friday.
The town of Newburgh’s estimated population increased slightly from July 2020 to July 2021, from 3,358 to 3,389.
An IU Bloomington news release said the Indiana Business Research Center “acts as Indiana’s official state representative to the Census Bureau on matters relating to the census and population estimates.”
Other Indiana highlights from the Census Bureau’s 2021 estimates:
- The city of Westfield was the state’s fastest-growing community of at least 5,000 residents. Westfield grew by 7.7% in 2021, leading Whitestown at 7.4% and Bargersville at 7%.
- The estimated population of Indianapolis shrunk by 0.6%. Indianapolis was the nation’s 15th most populous city at 882,039, down from 887,382 in 2020.
- Jeffersonville joined the ranks of cities with estimated populations of 50,000 or more in 2021.
- Fishers and Carmel were among six cities that crossed the 100,000 population mark.
On June 30, the Census Bureau will release estimates of the July 1, 2021, population by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. The data will provide estimates for the U.S., states and counties.
Kinghorn is ready for COVID-19’s effect on future population data to fade.
“We all hope that the worst of that is behind us, at least as it affects demographic trends,” he said.
Thomas B. Langhorne can be reached by email at tom.langhorne@courierpress.com.
