The winter wave of COVID-19 may be starting to flatten out, Ventura County’s health officer said Friday.
California Department of Public Health data on Thursday showed infection rates and positivity climbed but not nearly as steeply as in winter surges the previous two years. And data posted by the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention showed hospitalizations — perhaps the best measure of risks — dropped to 11.1 new COVID admissions per 100,000 people a week as of Wednesday, compared to a rate of 12.9 a week earlier.
Transmission levels remain elevated and hospitalizations could grow because of gatherings for Christmas and New Year’s. But the current wave isn’t at surge levels and looks little like the floods that overwhelmed hospitals the last two winters, Health Officer Dr. Robert Levin said, noting admission rates are also smaller than during a rise driven by omicron subvariants this summer.
“I think COVID is showing some signs of plateauing,” Levin said, adding he sees “no signs” of a big surge coming.
On Thursday, the county moved from “high” to “medium” in an assessment of COVID-19 activity by the CDC. The county had jumped to the highest risk category just a week earlier, causing Naval Base Ventura County to reinstate its indoor masking requirement.
The assessment is based on case rate, hospital admissions and the percentage of hospital beds being used by COVID-19 patients. Levin said it’s possible the rating could continue to vacillate between “high” and “medium.”
Emphasizing COVID is still being spread in the community, Levin urged people to wear masks indoors in public places and to get vaccinated and boosted. He credited increased vigilance with helping keep the COVID wave from growing.
Hospitals have been packed for several weeks due in part to respiratory illnesses that include COVID, flu and respiratory syncytial virus. RSV cases have dropped and flu appears to be leveling off, said Steve Carroll, administrator for the Ventura County Emergency Medical Services Agency.
Hospitals remain busy. Visitors to emergency rooms still sometimes have to wait for beds to open but overall admissions have leveled off.
“I think we’re holding our own,” Carroll said. COVID hospitalizations also increased after Christmas with 83 people admitted as of Thursday and will likely rise more but the levels are manageable.
“It’s not anything staggering,” Carroll said.
The state data posted Thursday showed the COVID-19 infection rate in Ventura County rose to 15.4 cases a day per 100,000 people, compared to a rate of 14 cases a day a week earlier. The rate is calculated on an eight-day lag, meaning it doesn’t include infections from Christmas gatherings.
Slightly more than 12% of the people tested for COVID came up positive, compared to 10.6% the previous week, according to the state data. The value of the metrics has been questioned because because neither the infection nor positivity rate include home tests.
Hospitalizations are a much more accurate measure of COVID activity, Levin said.
Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.
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