Sheldon H. Jacobson and Janet A. Jokela
Many are acting like the COVID-19 pandemic is over.
Given that face coverings are optional in most venues, people have embraced this new maskless freedom with verve. A bivalent vaccine is available, yet its uptake has been slow, even amongst those over 65 years old, who are most vulnerable to hospitalization and death. President Joe Biden’s announcement that the pandemic was over was at best premature, or at worst, misguided.
In general, as more people move indoors in the coming winter months, there will likely be an uptick of all upper respiratory ailments, including COVID-19.
So what does the data tracked and reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say about the virus that causes COVID-19?
The percent of counties with community levels at high risk peaked at 46% the week of July 28. Since then, there has been a steady decline, until recently. This number bottomed out at 1.4% the week of Oct. 20. Its recent bump up to around 2.6% is small, but noteworthy.
Will this upward reversal continue, or will it meander around this level? Given that community levels are a measure of the health care system’s ability to manage COVID-19 hospitalizations, the absolute number remains encouraging, but deserving of ongoing attention.
More:Is it flu, COVID-19 or RSV? How to tell.
Community transmission has been steady, with around 47% of counties experiencing high community transmission. This classification is a function of testing. Given that many people are now using at-home tests, with results not always reported to county public health district, this data are certain to be unreliable and significantly undercounting the actual level of transmission around the country. This means that community levels provide a more discerning metric for assessing the status of COVID-19, since community transmission is effectively high everywhere.
The variant proportion monitoring by the CDC provides a picture of how the omicron variant continues to evolve and mutate.
During the week of Aug. 20, the BA.5 omicron subvariant represented around 86% of the confirmed infections. During the week of Nov. 12, it had dropped to under 30%. Competing subvariants with at least 1% of the infections detected include BQ.1.1, BQ.1, BA.4.6, BF.7, BA.5.2.6, BN.1 and BA.2.75. As the virus spreads and new variants and subvariants emerge, all battling to stay alive by finding people to infect, the most contagious of them gains a foothold in the population.
To illustrate this point, just two weeks ago, BA.4.6 appeared to be on track to become the next dominant omicron subvariant. However, the new subvariants BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 have surged over the past week to gain dominant positions. How these subvariants continue to spread in the population is much like a horse race, with no clear finish line to watch.
Making sense of all such data is challenging. Using it to forecast the trajectory of the virus is futile. What remains indisputable is that the number of COVID-19 deaths continues to languish between 350 to 400 per day. Though this is much below the 2,500 deaths per day peak seen in January 2022, excess deaths in the population continue, contributing to a lower life expectancy.
More:How to get an updated COVID-19 booster shot in Indiana
How people respond to the next chapter of COVID-19 remains unclear. Recent experience suggests that most will continue to take a minimalist approach to personal safety, meaning they will take minimal precautions based on what they believe their personal risk to be.
Yet most people are notoriously bad at assessing personal risk.
Those most vulnerable include people over 50 years old and those who are immunocompromised. They will keep up to date with their boosters and continue to wear face coverings as necessary in crowded indoor settings and when air ventilation is poor.
Others who believe that they have no personal risk will take no precautions.
The downside of such an individualistic environment is that the virus will continue to spread and mutate.
People, including our elected officials, may decide that the pandemic is over. Yet the virus has the ultimate say.
The most disturbing part of this situation is that it would take so little for each of us to act in a manner that can suppress the spread of the virus and slow the proliferation of new variants and subvariants. This would require people to adopt a common good approach to everyone’s well-being. Sadly, such cooperation remains elusive at this time, resulting in the virus continuing to spread, keeping the pandemic alive.
Food for thought. Let’s hope that Ebola does not reach the United States. If it does, this same individualistic approach would produce catastrophic results.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor in computer science and the Carle Illinois College of Medicine at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.
Dr. Janet A. Jokela, has a Master of Public Health and is the executive associate dean in the Carle Illinois College of Medicine at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. She is an infectious disease and public health physician.
